Wednesday, July 11, 2012

UFC on Fuel TV 4: Silva's Next Victim

After putting on the most anticipated rematch of all-time this past weekend the UFC now has to find Anderson Silva’s next victim opponent.  The UFC on Fuel TV 4 main event pits Mark Muñoz against Chris Weidman. 

The winner of this fight will jump to the front of the line for Silva’s title… at least until Hector Lombard destroys Tim Boetch July 21.  The pay per view card was a rough night for picks.

My guy Tito lost a questionable decision and a freak injury cost me on my Stun Gun.  That’s alright though because I have recovered and am looking to get 20 picks over .500 for the year.

Also, I will be heading to Kansas City this weekend for some bachelor party shenanigans for my brother who I let fight in the UFC while I held the banner.  Unfortunately, this means that I will likely not be able to catch Strikeforce live on Saturday night.

I encourage any fight fan to check it out because it is a much a better card than this Fuel TV card in my opinion. 

Quick Strikeforce picks
Lawler TKO Round 2 over Larkin
Gracie Submission Round 1 over Jardine
Marquardt TKO Round 3 over Woodley
Rockhold Unanimous Decision (49-46) over Kennedy

Now on to the real picks…
Last Card: 3-3
Year: 46-28

The first of six main card fights pits two exciting lightweights against each other.  Dos Anjos is one of the most underrated fighters in the crowded 155 pound division.  If not for a jaw injury suffered in the third round against Clay Guida and a split decision loss to Gleison Tibau he would be on a seven fight winning streak. Dos Anjos is a BJJ black belt who will need to get this fight to the ground if he wants to leave with a win.

Njokuani is one of my favorite fighters to watch when he steps into the Octagon.  His strength is clearly his muay thai and he throws more kicks in a single fight than most fighters do in an entire career.  He has not been the most successful fighter lately, alternating wins and losses in his last six, but he will always have one of the coolest moments in WEC history. 

The advantage Njokuani’s striking is smaller than the advantage dos Anjos holds on the ground.  The Assassin throws volume strikes but he has not finished an opponent in the UFC. It is just a matter of time until dos Anjos gets this fight to the ground.

Dos Anjos Submission (Arm Bar) Round 2

Dillashaw was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter Season 14 where he ultimately lost to John Dodson.  In his first fight after the show the Viper put on a clinic against Walel Watson resulting in judges giving scores of 30-25, 30-25 and 30-26.  His wrestling is his greatest asset in his repertoire.  Look forward the young Team Alpha Male product to execute his ground and pound.

Vaughan Lee bounced back from a loss in his UFC debut with a very slick armbar from a triangle against Norifumi Yamamoto in February.  The Brit is a stud on the ground and will be very comfortable executing offense from his back if when Dillashaw takes him down.

When a wrestler, especially an inexperienced one like Dillashaw, meets a stud on the ground it is always a tricky situation.  The wrestler can dominate the entire fight but in an instant get caught in a submission, just ask Chael Sonnen.  In this case though Dillashaw controls his top position very well and I like him to cruise to a victory.

Dillashaw Unanimous Decision (30-27)

Vemola is coming off a successful middleweight debut in May where he submitted Mike Massenzio.  While the opponent may be the most impressive, Vemola deserves credit for making the weight cut, just three years ago he was fighting as a heavyweight.  The 6 time Czech Republic National Wrestling Champion is incredibly strong, was a former body builder, but his striking can get wild at times.  Also, in previous fights his gas tank has come into question.   

Carmont, a teammate of Georges St Pierre, is riding a seven fight win streak (2-0 in the UFC).  He also won his last fight by rear naked choke back in April.  Carmont seems to be the more complete fighter of the two.  He lacks the brute strength of the Terminator but his striking game is much more versatile.  The longer the fight goes, the worst news it is for Vemola.

Carmont TKO Round 2

Simpson’s style can best be described as grinding. He was an All-American at Arizona State and it shows when he steps in the Octagon. This will be his welterweight debut where he was originally scheduled to face perennial contender Jon Fitch.  Now he goes up against Robertson, a fighter that not much is known about (he doesn’t even have a wikipedia page) besides a loss to Mike Pierce at UFC 126 last February.

In that loss Robertson was bullied by Pierce for a round and a half before getting TKOd.  At the time I did not think much of Pierce but after recent performances I will not hold the fight against Robertson. He does hold a win against a talented fighter from Wisconsin I have seen fight multiple times in Gerald Meerchaert. 

At age 37 I expect the first time weight cut to take a toll on Simpson. Robertson gets a pass form me for his first Octagon performance and I expect him to come out inspired and lock down the biggest win of his career.

Robertson Unanmious Decision (29-28)

James Te Huna vs. Joey“The Mexicutioner” Beltran
Te Huna is the first ever New Zealander in the UFC and is showing that Kiwis know how to fight. He was won 8 of his last 9 with seven of them coming by stoppage.
  While he does not have a signature win yet in his career, it is only a matter of time before more people star taking notice. 

Beltran is back in the UFC after a successful light heavyweight debut outside the promotion.  He is a fan favorite due to his brawling style and iron chin.  Unfortunately for him, I think chin has worn down, you only need to look at the Lavar Johnson fight to see that.  After 21 fights I find it hard to believe that Beltran changed his style that much and a decision win over a 4-2 regional light heavyweight brings memories of Shania Twain.

This is a rather weak co-main even in my opinion even for a Fuel card. Te Huna at this point in their careers is just better than Joey Beltran.

Te-Huna KO Round 1

The main event features a pair of two-time college wrestling All Americans. Muñoz was supposed to face Chael Sonnen in January before he injury sidelined took him out of action until today. Muñoz fights a lot like Sonnen; his plan is to take his opponents down and hit them with is Donkey Kong style ground and pound. His four fight win streak includes victories over many different styles of fighters but no one quite as well-rounded as Weidman.

Chris Weidman is undefeated in 8 career fights (4-0 UFC). He comes out of a rising Serra-Longo Fight Team in Long Island.  His last fight against Demian Maia did not wow anybody but people need to remember he cut 32 pounds in 10 days.  The All-American only started training jiu-jitsu in 2008 but I think he has the clear submission advantage in this match up.

When two wrestlers fight it usually turns into an ugly stand up war. While I think the wrestling of Muñoz is overrated, he has only landed 23% of his takedown attempts in the Octagon, he still packs a lot of power.  Weidman will need to utilize his reach advantage to stay clear of these power shots.

When the odds came out on this fight I was surprise that Weidman was the slight favorite over the veteran Muñoz but ultimately I have to agree with the odds makers.

Weidman Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 3

Two wrestlers in the main event. What could go wrong?
Credit: MMAJunkie

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right.  Also, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on with my friend Ryan Penney (his picks below). Be easy on the kid he is still upset about Chael’s loss.

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Lightweight- Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

I don’t pick against Ninjas... EVER! Njokuani by 2nd round KO via some sweet kick.

Bantamweight- T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

Dillashaw impressed me in Omaha. I think he takes it to the Brit and moves to 2-0 in the Octagon.

MiddleWeight-Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

Francis has a lot of hype behind him because he trains with GSP. He has lived up to the hype so far with a 2-0 record in the octagon. Vemola will give him a strong test, but I give the nod to Carmont via Decision.

Welterweight- Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

Thanks for filling in Mr. Robertson, but this will not end well for you. Simpson is coming off a tough split decision loss and looking for payback. This is a great chance for Robertson who fills in for Jon Fitch, but sadly it wont last long. Simpson by round 1 TKO

Light Heavyweight- James Te-Huna vs. Joey Beltran

James Te-Huna has been extremely impressive so far going 3-1 with his only loss coming at the hands of the Swedish version of Jon Jones (Gustafsson).  He gets a test against a vet who probably doesn’t remember his last fight in the Octagon very well in Joey Beltran. I think the kid gets a HUGE decision victory against Beltran.

Middleweight- Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman

I love America but I think Munoz dominates in this one and I don’t think it will be close. I think Munoz grounds and pounds his way to a round 2 TKO. Up next: a spider… That is a scary “reward”.
Sorry this week’s picks were quick, and uncreative but sadly Marty was yelling at me to finish these and get back to my sweatshop.

Enjoy the fights… and don’t forget #TeamChael

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